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FOREX-Dollar, euro hold steady ahead of ECB meeting
Published at 22/07/2019 at 15:24

* Traders see just below 50% chance of ECB cutting rates

* Falling U.S. yields pare dollar's gain vs euro

* Swiss franc hits two-year high vs euro on safe-haven demand

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019

(Updates market action, changes dateline, previous LONDON)

By Richard Leong

NEW YORK, July 22 (Reuters) - The dollar and euro were little changed on Monday as traders wait for decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on how much and how fast they may reduce interest rates, beginning with the ECB on Thursday.

Traders see about a 46% probability European policy-makers will lower a key deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.50 basis points to combat risk from global trade tensions and anemic regional inflation, based on local interest rates market.

"Our base case for the ECB could see some small upside in (euro versus dollar) unless the Governing Council delivers a strongly dovish surprise," said Ned Rumpeltin, TD Securities' European head of FX strategy. "Overall, however, we think recent range should remain in place."

Rising chances of European interest rates sliding deeper into negative territory had pressured the euro lower against the dollar, and propelled the Swiss franc to a two-year peak against the single currency.

Meanwhile, the greenback has been bogged down by bets the Federal Reserve will likely cut U.S. interest rates for the first time in a decade to deal with the same issues as the ECB.

Data published late on Friday showed speculators dialed back their net bullish positions in the dollar against other G10 currencies to their lowest level in a year.

At 10:10 a.m. (1410 GMT), the euro was marginally lower at $1.1215, rebounding from a session low of $1.1207.

The dollar moved lower in step with U.S. yields. The two-year Treasury yield slipped to 1.801% early on Monday, which was below the Fed's current target range of 2.25%-2.50% on short-term rates.

An index that tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies was fractionally higher at 97.201.

U.S. rates futures implied traders positioned for a 72% chance the U.S. central bank may lower its rate range by a quarter point at its July 30-31 policy meeting, down from 76% late on Friday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Rates futures signaled traders priced in nearly a 28% chance for a 50 basis-point cut next week, up from 24% on Friday.

Rates futures rallied last Thursday with perceived chances for a half-point rate cut soaring to 71% after a dovish speech by New York Fed President John Williams. Those bets abated after a Fed spokesman clarified that the remarks did not refer to "potential policy actions."

The Swiss franc fell to 1.0999 franc per euro earlier on Monday, which was its strongest level against the common currency since July 2017. ========================================================

Currency bid prices at 10:14AM (1414 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1213 $1.1220 -0.06% -2.23% +1.1225 +1.1207

Dollar/Yen JPY= 107.9400 107.7000 +0.22% -2.10% +108.0600 +107.7100

Euro/Yen EURJPY= 121.08 120.86 +0.18% -4.07% +121.1600 +120.8100

Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9814 0.9816 -0.02% +0.00% +0.9840 +0.9804

Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2471 1.2500 -0.23% -2.24% +1.2520 +1.2456

Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3104 1.3060 +0.34% -3.91% +1.3105 +1.3041

Australian/Doll AUD= 0.7038 0.7042 -0.06% -0.16% +0.7057 +0.7032

ar

Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1007 1.1014 -0.06% -2.19% +1.1035 +1.1000

Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8991 0.8971 +0.22% +0.08% +0.9000 +0.8963

NZ NZD= 0.6769 0.6761 +0.12% +0.77% +0.6786 +0.6758

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.6039 8.5717 +0.38% -0.40% +8.6073 +8.5686

Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.6488 9.6180 +0.32% -2.60% +9.6527 +9.6129

Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.4119 9.3774 +0.25% +5.00% +9.4141 +9.3825

Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.5545 10.5279 +0.25% +2.83% +10.5579 +10.5206

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ GRAPHIC-Net speculative U.S. dollar positioning GRAPHIC-Bets on bold first rate-cut from the Fed GRAPHIC-Bets on bold first rate-cut from the Fed interactive Swiss franc vs euro

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

(Additional reporting by Tommy Wilkes in LONDON Editing by Susan Thomas)

((richard.leong@thomsonreuters.com; +1 646 223 6313; Reuters Messaging: richard.leong.thomsonreuters.com@thomsonreuters.net; Twitter @RichardLeong2))